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Following the release by the USCIS of their backlog statistics in September, many prospective immigrants began to reevaluate the idea of upgrading to higher preference classifications. Central to any such decision is the answer to the question �How long do I have to wait if I remain in my present classification?� The purpose of this article is to help applicants try and determine just how long that wait will be.
The answer to that question, like most things, is complex. It depends on several factors that are unknown at this time. These include:
� There is an unknown number of pending AOS cases that have not yet been classified or reviewed.
� In the case of EB2, there is an unknown number of EB3 applicants who are actively in the process of upgrading to EB2.
� There are additional cases in the pipeline, not accounted for by the available backlog information.
While it is not possible to predict with accuracy precisely how long it will be before specific applicants will receive immigrant visas, it is possible to get some idea of the minimum waiting time. That is, it is possible to determine how long it will be, at an absolute minimum, before a visa number becomes available. The actual waiting time will be longer than the minimum time, but this will at least give people a rough idea of just what they are looking at.
Let�s first look at the employment based second preference category (EB2). For purposes of this discussion, we will look at the visa waiting times for China, India, and Worldwide.
The �Worldwide� chargeability area is �current� � meaning that there are more visas available under the quota that there are qualified applicants. This means that anyone chargeable to the Worldwide EB2 category has immediate access to a visa. This condition will remain so for at least the next several years.
Because there are unused visa numbers within the EB2 Worldwide allocation, the remaining numbers may be used by people who are otherwise eligible, but for the single state limit (i.e., citizens of China and India). These applicants may use the leftover EB2 numbers as though they were chargeable to the Worldwide category, as long as visas remain available. That is, those with the oldest priority dates, irrespective of country of birth, are at the head of the line for EB2 visas.
Let�s take a look at the backlog information for EB2 visas shown on the CIS website, arranged, by priority dates, area of charge and year:
The Worldwide allocation for EB2 is roughly 40,000 visas annually, plus all unused EB1 numbers. For fiscal year 2008, a total of 35,590 employment-based first preference visas were issued. Due to the failure of the CIS to adjudicate enough family based adjustment of status cases, about 25,000 visas from that quota fell over into the employment based quota and a total of 70,135 EB2 visas were issued. For fiscal year 2009, there were considerably fewer family based visas available for use by the EB categories. For FY 2010, the State Department estimates that there will be only about 5,000 such additional visas available. For our purposes, we can assume that EB1 will have about 5,000 leftover visas and another 5,000 will become available from the family based quota. This means that the EB2 visa availability will be approximately 50,000 for this fiscal year.
If we assume that all of the demand shown on the CIS website remains, and that there is no additional demand, the total of pre-approved EB2 cases pending before the CIS with priority dates earlier than 2007 is almost 52,000. In reality, this demand represents about two-thirds of the actual demand, so the likelihood is that the EB2 cutoff date will not move beyond May, 2006 by the end of fiscal year 2010 (September 30, 2010).
If the EB2 cutoff date does reach May, 2006 by the end of FY 2010, then it would likely reach the end of calendar year 2008 (and probably go into early 2009) by the end of fiscal year 2011.
A word of warning is in order at this point. Our office alone has received about 150 inquiries in the last couple of months by people with established EB3 priority dates who wish to file new PERM applications so that they may qualify for EB2. When they do, they will take their EB3 priority dates with them. This means that they will enter the EB2 waiting list at a point much earlier in time.
Our office is but one of many receiving these inquiries. I have to believe that somewhere between 7,500 and 12,000 people are actively in the process of upgrading their preference classifications right now. As the months progress, this number will increase. All of these people will move onto the EB2 waiting list with older priority dates, in some cases as early as 2002. When this happens, it will push those with more recent priority dates back in line, increasing the time they must wait for visa availability
My question is that is 2 months of AP validity / cushion enough or safe to enter the US.
Any experiences from forum members about using their AP when there is 2 months or less left in the expiry of the AP document and they entered the US. Did anyone have any bad experience at POE due to near expiry of the AP. Members entered through Denver, CO POE with their experiences would be an added help.
Also, will she get a 1 year I-94 validity from the date of entry or only until her AP expires?
Thanks in advance for all your time.
2010 Herr der Ringe Hexenkönig,
It's bravo IV. Each of us should tell and motivate others to join IV. You see for most part, your posting in these forums in IV is very anonymous. I think except for yourself, no one can get see your profile details including your full name, phone number etc.
Also, keep looking for opportunities to write to editors, anchors etc., whenever they speak rubbish. All that we are doing now is letting the media know that legal immigrants have huge issues and unresolved problems. We are writing to them that things have been very unfair. We are educating them.
As I said in many posts in this forum:
1) Speak and/or write to your employers about these issues. I have done so on many occasions. They have the greatest influence and benefit on the CIR outcome.
2) Write to news anchors.
3) Write and motivate your colleagues.
Be aware that the congress is 'kumbakarna' (in perpetual slumber) and I quote from discussion of Post-Politics (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2006/05/11/DI2006051101546.html) at WaPo.
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion
Tom Edsall Washington Post National Political Reporter
Monday, May 15, 2006; 11:00 AM
Boston, Mass.: How do you think the President's massive, overwhelming unpopularity is affecting Congress? What kind of work do you see Congress getting done for the American people in the coming months?
Tom Edsall: The American people should not hold their collective breath, except recipients of capital gains and dividend income, who apparently will be protected from a rate increase for two more years.
I will relax with a relief and see the beginning of solution to our issues, only when a bill is before President G.W.Bush for signing. Till then we must double or intensify our efforts. Also, know what the other side is doing.
Thanks for your help...
USCIS has decided to keep EB2/3-IN,China,Mexico,Philipines applicants in virtual jail for an average 7 to 10 years. So in reality it does not matter what you choose. Whatever you select you will be at mercy of USCIS. Only one thing you should do, in my opinion, not to become monkey if your real goal is to achieve GC in short span of 4 to 5 years. As you hop trees add more number of years per hop. By the way this is the first month you see EB2 retrogressed.
EB3 was in hell for last 4 years. So I am seeing at least 2 years for EB3 moving fast. Your category will be in real effect after at least 4 years of your filing and you can not predict what will happen after 4 years. Only one action is in your control and that is not to hop seeing short term gain."Exploitation from employer" OR "Temporarily seeing particular catgory moving fast or slow" are not good reasons for hoping in the path what USCIS has defined. SO if you try to cross that then you will be in this hell for more years. Whatever you select stick to it till the day you get your GC.
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Risk is 100%. So you can understand the situation. As long as you are in states the ball is in court. Think twice before taking this kind of step.
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Email notification for all the registerd cases is turned on. I did not receive any email notification for the updates
Just wondering if some one else in the same boat not receiving emails.
I have given my hotmail email ID, if that matters ?
Any Idea ...
It does work and they only send an email for a hard LUD (when there is a material change in status).
quick update: I received the receipt notices today for EAD Renewal by mail. can't believe it, but truly received for myself and my wife.
Big question is
1.Mine is having case number as LIN08801XXXXX which is fine, because my entire GC process since past 5 years is in Nebraska Service Center. I'm the primary applicant
2.But wife's case number is different, which is NSC08801XXXXX and clearly mentioned in the notice that her case is with national benefits center, Lee's summit MO.( By the way we live in Missouri)
The entries for "Class requested" is shown as C09 in both cases, which i believe correct.
Has anybody received like this before? if it's normal, i'm not worried
If not, any clues about next steps like do i need to call somebody or call Nebraska ??? a bit worried. any help ???????
Thanks in advance
Efiling EAD does not cause LUD on I-485. Guess something else.
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If the Democrats agrees with the Republicans and passes any meaningful CIR, then the whole credit would go to Bush and Co. It would make the Republican campaign very easy for Bush.
If I were a Democratic Senator, I would do every thing to block any CIR from getting passed.
With the record number of H1 applications recently, we can also expect that they would put serious limitations on H1, claiming that the whole thing is misused.
Apparently, the whole thing is hugely bad for America. It is not just Indian politician who can destroy their own country, American politicians can also do a fantastic job of destroying their country.
I feel sorry for my kids, who are US citizens by birth.
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Need your advice. Filed I-485 on July 5th. I-140 is approved. Working with the employer for 6 yrs. Now that I filed for final stage, my employer wants me to sign a contract voluntarily that I should stay with them for 24 months. What are my legal options in state of CA? He wants to get 20K if I leave earlier than contract term. I signed it since he threatened me to revoke I-140. Can I backout after portability law kicks in.
Thanks in advance.
Do you have any documentary proof of him asking for this 2 year contract? I advice you to stay with him for 6 months. If he is a good employer, (but rather insecure that you will leave after getting GC), what is wrong in staying with him. I mean, if you have already a split deal like 80/20 share of your billing etc.
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o lord labaku... in this case, i am talking to those of us who have started up a company in recent times and are looking forward to offsetting their incomes by the company expenses and hence save on taxes...
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Everything is ok, except that there is an extra copy of G 28 each for myself and my wife and these extra copies are not signed by attorneys.
In the middle of the package, right above the 485 forms, there are G28 forms that are properly signed. Everywhere else there is signatures where needed. But at the bottom of the bunch, there is extra G28 for each one of us that is missing signature from the attorney.
Could this be a problem? Also, where is the URL for USCIS FAQ that states under what conditions that petitions can boomerang back to us?.
Extra missing signature shouldn't be an issue. Only if we miss G28 for one of those forms then we are in trouble.